HIV-1 transmission between MSM and heterosexuals, and increasing proportions of circulating recombinant forms in the Nordic Countries.

Increased knowledge about HIV-1 transmission dynamics in different transmission groups and geographical regions is fundamental for assessing and designing prevention efforts against HIV-1 spread. Since the first reported cases of HIV infection during the early 1980s, the HIV-1 epidemic in the Nordic countries has been dominated by HIV-1 subtype B and MSM transmission. HIV-1 pol sequences and clinical data of 51 per cent of all newly diagnosed HIV-1 infections in Sweden, Denmark, and Finland in the period 2000-2012 (N = 3,802) were analysed together with a large reference sequence dataset (N = 4,537) by trend analysis and phylogenetics. Analysis of the eight dominating subtypes and CRFs in the Nordic countries (A, B, C, D, G, CRF01_AE, CRF02_AG, and CRF06_cpx) showed that the subtype B proportion decreased while the CRF proportion increased over the study period. A majority (57 per cent) of the Nordic sequences formed transmission clusters, with evidence of mixing both geographically and between transmission groups. Detailed analyses showed multiple occasions of transmissions from MSM to heterosexuals and that active transmission clusters more often involved single than multiple Nordic countries. The strongest geographical link was between Denmark and Sweden. Finally, Denmark had a larger proportion of heterosexual domestic spread of HIV-1 subtype B (75 per cent) compared with Sweden (49 per cent) and Finland (57 per cent). We describe different HIV-1 transmission patterns between countries and transmission groups in a large geographical region. Our results may have implications for public health interventions in targeting HIV-1 transmission networks and identifying where to introduce such interventions.

Delayed HIV diagnosis common in Sweden, 2003-2010.

BACKGROUND: Early diagnosis of HIV is important for the prognosis of individual patients, because antiretroviral treatment can be started at the appropriate time, and for public health, because transmission can be prevented. METHODS: Data were collected from 767 HIV patients who were diagnosed in Sweden during 2003-2010 and were infected in Sweden or born in Sweden and infected abroad. A recent infection testing algorithm (RITA) was applied to BED-EIA test results (OD-n < 0.8), CD4 counts (≥ 200 cells/µl), and clinical information. A recent infection classification was used as indicator for early diagnosis. Time trends in early diagnosis were investigated to detect population changes in HIV testing behavior. Patients with early diagnosis were compared to patients with delayed diagnosis with respect to age, gender, transmission route, and country of infection (Sweden or abroad). RESULTS: Early diagnosis was observed in 271 patients (35%). There was no statistically significant time trend in the yearly percentage of patients with early diagnosis in the entire study group (p = 0.836) or in subgroups. Early diagnosis was significantly more common in men who have sex men (MSM) (45%) than in heterosexuals (21%) and injecting drug users (27%) (p < 0.001 and p = 0.001, respectively) in both univariate and multivariable analyses. The only other factor that remained associated with early diagnosis in multivariable analysis was young age group. CONCLUSION: Approximately one-third of the study patients were diagnosed early with no significant change over time. Delayed HIV diagnosis is a considerable problem in Sweden, which does not appear to diminish.

Timing and order of transmission events is not directly reflected in a pathogen phylogeny.

Pathogen phylogenies are often used to infer spread among hosts. There is, however, not an exact match between the pathogen phylogeny and the host transmission history. Here, we examine in detail the limitations of this relationship. First, all splits in a pathogen phylogeny of more than 1 host occur within hosts, not at the moment of transmission, predating the transmission events as described by the pretransmission interval. Second, the order in which nodes in a phylogeny occur may be reflective of the within-host dynamics rather than epidemiologic relationships. To investigate these phenomena, motivated by within-host diversity patterns, we developed a two-phase coalescent model that includes a transmission bottleneck followed by linear outgrowth to a maximum population size followed by either stabilization or decline of the population. The model predicts that the pretransmission interval shrinks compared with predictions based on constant population size or a simple transmission bottleneck. Because lineages coalesce faster in a small population, the probability of a pathogen phylogeny to resemble the transmission history depends on when after infection a donor transmits to a new host. We also show that the probability of inferring the incorrect order of multiple transmissions from the same host is high. Finally, we compare time of HIV-1 infection informed by genetic distances in phylogenies to independent biomarker data, and show that, indeed, the pretransmission interval biases phylogeny-based estimates of when transmissions occurred. We describe situations where caution is needed not to misinterpret which parts of a phylogeny that may indicate outbreaks and tight transmission clusters.

Evolution of the human immunodeficiency virus type 2 envelope in the first years of infection is associated with the dynamics of the neutralizing antibody response.

BACKGROUND: Differently from HIV-1, HIV-2 disease progression usually takes decades without antiretroviral therapy and the majority of HIV-2 infected individuals survive as elite controllers with normal CD4⁺ T cell counts and low or undetectable plasma viral load. Neutralizing antibodies (Nabs) are thought to play a central role in HIV-2 evolution and pathogenesis. However, the dynamic of the Nab response and resulting HIV-2 escape during acute infection and their impact in HIV-2 evolution and disease progression remain largely unknown. Our objective was to characterize the Nab response and the molecular and phenotypic evolution of HIV-2 in association with Nab escape in the first years of infection in two children infected at birth. RESULTS: CD4⁺ T cells decreased from about 50% to below 30% in both children in the first five years of infection and the infecting R5 viruses were replaced by X4 viruses within the same period. With antiretroviral therapy, viral load in child 1 decreased to undetectable levels and CD4+ T cells recovered to normal levels, which have been sustained at least until the age of 12. In contrast, viral load increased in child 2 and she progressed to AIDS and death at age 9. Beginning in the first year of life, child 1 raised high titers of antibodies that neutralized primary R5 isolates more effectively than X4 isolates, both autologous and heterologous. Child 2 raised a weak X4-specific Nab response that decreased sharply as disease progressed. Rate of evolution, nucleotide and amino acid diversity, and positive selection, were significantly higher in the envelope of child 1 compared to child 2. Rates of R5-to-X4 tropism switch, of V1 and V3 sequence diversification, and of convergence of V3 to a ß-hairpin structure were related with rate of escape from the neutralizing antibodies. CONCLUSION: Our data suggests that the molecular and phenotypic evolution of the human immunodeficiency virus type 2 envelope are related with the dynamics of the neutralizing antibody response providing further support for a model in which Nabs play an important role in HIV-2 pathogenesis.

Towards estimation of HIV-1 date of infection: a time-continuous IgG-model shows that seroconversion does not occur at the midpoint between negative and positive tests.

Estimating date of infection for HIV-1-infected patients is vital for disease tracking and informed public health decisions, but is difficult to obtain because most patients have an established infection of unknown duration at diagnosis. Previous studies have used HIV-1-specific immunoglobulin G (IgG) levels as measured by the IgG capture BED enzyme immunoassay (BED assay) to indicate if a patient was infected recently, but a time-continuous model has not been available. Therefore, we developed a logistic model of IgG production over time. We used previously published metadata from 792 patients for whom the HIV-1-specific IgG levels had been longitudinally measured using the BED assay. To account for patient variability, we used mixed effects modeling to estimate general population parameters. The typical patient IgG production rate was estimated at r = 6.72[approximate 95% CI 6.17,7.33]×10(-3) OD-n units day(-1), and the carrying capacity at K = 1.84[1.75,1.95] OD-n units, predicting how recently patients seroconverted in the interval (∧) t = (31,711) days. Final model selection and validation was performed on new BED data from a population of 819 Swedish HIV-1 patients diagnosed in 2002-2010. On an appropriate subset of 350 patients, the best model parameterization had an accuracy of 94% finding a realistic seroconversion date. We found that seroconversion on average is at the midpoint between last negative and first positive HIV-1 test for patients diagnosed in prospective/cohort studies such as those included in the training dataset. In contrast, seroconversion is strongly skewed towards the first positive sample for patients identified by regular public health diagnostic testing as illustrated in the validation dataset. Our model opens the door to more accurate estimates of date of infection for HIV-1 patients, which may facilitate a better understanding of HIV-1 epidemiology on a population level and individualized prevention, such as guidance during contact tracing.

Phylogenetic analysis of the Latvian HIV-1 epidemic.

The Latvian HIV-1 outbreak among intravenous drug users (IDUs) in 1997-1998 involved subtype A1. To obtain a more complete picture of the Latvian HIV-1 epidemic, 315 HIV-1-infected patients diagnosed in 1990-2005 representing different transmission groups and geographic regions were phylogenetically characterized using env V3 and gag p17 sequences. Subtypes A1 and B infections were found in 76% and 22% of the patients, respectively. The subtype A1 sequences formed one large cluster, which also included sequences from other parts of the former Soviet Union (FSU), whereas most subtype B sequences formed three distinct clusters. We estimated that subtype A1 was introduced from FSU around 1997 and initially spread explosively among IDUs in Riga. A recent increase of heterosexually infected persons did not form a separate subepidemic, but had multiple interactions with the IDU epidemic. Subtype B was introduced before the collapse of the Soviet Union and primarily has spread among men who have sex with men.

Daily sampling of an HIV-1 patient with slowly progressing disease displays persistence of multiple env subpopulations consistent with neutrality.

The molecular evolution of HIV-1 is characterized by frequent substitutions, indels and recombination events. In addition, a HIV-1 population may adapt through frequency changes of its variants. To reveal such population dynamics we analyzed HIV-1 subpopulation frequencies in an untreated patient with stable, low plasma HIV-1 RNA levels and close to normal CD4+ T-cell levels. The patient was intensively sampled during a 32-day period as well as approximately 1.5 years before and after this period (days -664, 1, 2, 3, 11, 18, 25, 32 and 522). 77 sequences of HIV-1 env (approximately 3100 nucleotides) were obtained from plasma by limiting dilution with 7-11 sequences per time point, except day -664. Phylogenetic analysis using maximum likelihood methods showed that the sequences clustered in six distinct subpopulations. We devised a method that took into account the relatively coarse sampling of the population. Data from days 1 through 32 were consistent with constant within-patient subpopulation frequencies. However, over longer time periods, i.e. between days 1...32 and 522, there were significant changes in subpopulation frequencies, which were consistent with evolutionarily neutral fluctuations. We found no clear signal of natural selection within the subpopulations over the study period, but positive selection was evident on the long branches that connected the subpopulations, which corresponds to >3 years as the subpopulations already were established when we started the study. Thus, selective forces may have been involved when the subpopulations were established. Genetic drift within subpopulations caused by de novo substitutions could be resolved after approximately one month. Overall, we conclude that subpopulation frequencies within this patient changed significantly over a time period of 1.5 years, but that this does not imply directional or balancing selection. We show that the short-term evolution we study here is likely representative for many patients of slow and normal disease progression.

HIV-1 evolution in relation to molecular epidemiology and antiretroviral resistance.

HIV/AIDS has become one of the most important infectious diseases with a cumulative number of almost 60 million infections worldwide. The prevalence and epidemiological patterns are unevenly distributed across the globe and also within countries. HIV is one of the fastest evolving organisms known. Several genetically distinct subtypes are present and new circulating recombinant forms are continuously emerging. This review discusses HIV-1 evolution in relation to molecular epidemiology and antiretroviral resistance. Factors and concepts that influence global spread and within-patient evolution of HIV-1 are discussed as well as future perspectives on the use of phylodynamics in HIV epidemiology.

Dynamics of two separate but linked HIV-1 CRF01_AE outbreaks among injection drug users in Stockholm, Sweden, and Helsinki, Finland.

Detailed phylogenetic analyses were performed to characterize an HIV-1 outbreak among injection drug users (IDUs) in Stockholm, Sweden, in 2006. This study investigated the source and dynamics of HIV-1 spread during the outbreak as well as associated demographic and clinical factors. Seventy Swedish IDUs diagnosed during 2004 to 2007 were studied. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory data were collected, and the V3 region of the HIV-1 envelope gene was sequenced to allow detailed phylogenetic analyses. The results showed that the Stockholm outbreak was caused by a CRF01_AE variant imported from Helsinki, Finland, around 2003, which was quiescent until the outbreak started in 2006. Local Swedish subtype B variants continued to spread at a lower rate. The number of new CRF01_AE cases over a rooted phylogenetic tree accurately reflected the transmission dynamics and showed a temporary increase, by a factor of 12, in HIV incidence during the outbreak. Virus levels were similar in CRF01_AE and subtype B infections, arguing against differences in contagiousness. Similarly, there were no major differences in other baseline characteristics. Instead, the outbreak in Stockholm (and Helsinki) was best explained by an introduction of HIV into a standing network of previously uninfected IDUs. The combination of phylogenetics and epidemiological data creates a powerful tool for investigating outbreaks of HIV and other infectious diseases that could improve surveillance and prevention.

HIV-2 genetic evolution in patients with advanced disease is faster than that in matched HIV-1 patients.

The objective of this study was to estimate and compare the evolutionary rates of HIV-2 and HIV-1. Two HIV-2 data sets from patients with advanced disease were compared to matched HIV-1 data sets. The estimated mean evolutionary rate of HIV-2 was significantly higher than the estimated rate of HIV-1, both in the gp125 and in the V3 region of the env gene. In addition, the rate of synonymous substitutions in gp125 was significantly higher for HIV-2 than for HIV-1, possibly indicating a shorter generation time or higher mutation rate of HIV-2. Thus, the lower virulence of HIV-2 does not appear to translate into a lower rate of evolution.

Multiple HIV-1 introductions into the Swedish intravenous drug user population.

In 2001, an increase of HIV-1 diagnoses among intravenous drug users (IVDU) was reported in Sweden. In nearby countries, Finland, Russia and the Baltic states, recent outbreaks had been described. Since there was a concern that these outbreaks would carry over to Sweden a study was initiated to determine the factors leading to the Swedish increase of HIV-1 diagnosed IVDUs. HIV-1 env V3 sequences were obtained from 97 patients enrolled in ongoing epidemiological studies encompassing the years 1987--2004 with a focus on 2001--2002. The sequences were used for maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference of the molecular epidemiology. Among the virus spreading in 2001--2002, we found that four different subtypes/CRFs were present in the Swedish IVDU population (A, B, CRF01_AE and CRF06_cpx). Subtype B constituted 85% of the infections, established by 12 independent introductions into the IVDU population. The worrisome increase in 2001 was mainly not a result of import of the outbreaks in nearby countries, but rather a higher detection rate of secondary cases due to efficient epidemiological tracing of the generally slow spread of established forms of subtype B in the IVDU community. However, a few of the non-subtype B cases were linked to the outbreaks in Finland, Estonia and Latvia. Because HIV-1 outbreaks can easily be exported from one country to another amongst IVDUs, this prompts continued surveillance in the Baltic Sea Region.